数字期望均值_大流行后数字社会的期望

Past events shape and inform our present decisions and these events combine to impact our future.

过去的事件影响着我们目前的决策并为我们提供了决策，这些事件共同影响着我们的未来。

The Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic is an event that will be remembered for a long time. The consequences of our decisions will no doubt have a significant impact on the future development of global society. Although we are in the early stages of an outbreak, it's already clear there will be several lasting consequences.

Covid-19冠状病毒大流行是一个很长的历史事件。 我们决定的后果无疑将对全球社会的未来发展产生重大影响。 尽管我们正处于爆发的早期阶段，但已经很清楚，将会有一些持久的后果。

In this essay, you can expect to gain an understanding of technologies and concepts that will converge in the near future as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. By understanding this inflexion point, we can better position ourselves for the inevitable future.

在本文中，您可以期望对由于Covid-19大流行而在不久的将来融合的技术和概念有所了解。 通过理解这个拐点，我们可以更好地为不可避免的未来做好准备。

适应数字社会 (Adapting to Digital Society)

Here is a simple truth: moving forward, the business that can be done online will be done online. The virus is forcing a societal shift from physical interactions to increasingly digital interactions. This was already happening but the shift will create a gold rush for tools and frameworks for existing in digital life. It will accelerate the Rise of the Global Digital Citizen.

这是一个简单的事实：向前发展，可以在线进行的业务将在线进行。 该病毒正在迫使社会从物理互动转变为越来越多的数字互动。 这已经发生了，但这种转变将为数字生活中现有的工具和框架带来淘金热。 它将加速全球数字公民的崛起 。

Digital Citizens are people that have significant daily interaction with internet communities. They represent a societal shift towards life that is increasingly digital.

数字公民是每天与互联网社区进行大量互动的人。 它们代表着社会向数字化生活的转变。

So what exactly are the characteristics of this new post-pandemic digital society?

那么，这个新的大流行后数字社会的特征到底是什么？

分权化 (Decentralization)

In physical terms, our ability to congregate en masse will be restricted. In the short term, this means cloistering ourselves in our homes away from large gatherings. As the outbreak subsides and government-mandated restrictions pass, it’s important to understand that the trauma of a pandemic may, in fact, lead to cultural changes. There is a high likelihood that social distancing will have cultural staying power after the pandemic.

从物理上讲，我们聚集的能力将受到限制。 从短期来看，这意味着我们要远离大型聚会而回到家中。 随着疫情的消退和政府规定的限制的通过，重要的是要了解大流行的创伤实际上可能导致文化变革。 大流行之后，社会隔离很可能具有文化上的持久力。

We have communications and collaborative work tools that are commonly used but now they will require scale for massive populations.

我们拥有常用的交流和协作工作工具，但现在它们需要大规模扩展规模。

During the outbreak, communications systems will be developed and implemented to support large scale decentralization. These technologies are being deployed at an unprecedented scale. Examples include Zoom’s video software support of working from, social networking apps like Twitter to support community interactions and Alibaba’s DingTalk for home education.

在疫情爆发期间，将开发和实施通信系统以支持大规模权力下放。 这些技术正以前所未有的规模部署。 例子包括Zoom的视频软件支持，Twitter等社交网络应用程序以支持社区交互，以及阿里巴巴的DingTalk用于家庭教育 。

Assuming the virus is present during November when US Presidential voting is to take place, there will be consequences to our antiquated in-person system of voting. We saw a rather catastrophic attempt at using new software-based apps to vote in Iowa caucuses. In the event the outbreak persists, we can expect local governments to prepare for the wide-scale use of remote voting platforms. These remote-friendly and decentralized voting platforms will inevitably change voting outcomes.

假设该病毒在11月举行的美国总统投票期间存在，那将对我们过时的亲自投票制度产生影响。 我们看到了使用新的基于软件的应用程序在爱荷华州预选赛中进行投票的灾难性尝试 。 如果爆发持续下去，我们可以期望地方政府为大规模使用远程投票平台做准备。 这些远程友好且分散的投票平台将不可避免地改变投票结果。

数码教育 (Digital Education)

MOOCs or Massive Open Online Courses are courses designed to be delivered to an online audience of unlimited scale. Professors prerecord lectures and post them online for students to interact with. MOOCs provide a variety of tiered interactions that a student can have with faculty and in general, this model supports a standardized approach to education.

MOOC或大规模在线公开课程是旨在向无限规模的在线受众提供的课程。 教授会预先录制讲座并在线发布，以供学生互动。 MOOC提供了学生可以与教职员工进行的各种层次的交互，通常，此模型支持标准化的教育方法。

MOOCs were already an educational trend prior to the outbreak.

爆发前，MOOC已经是一种教育趋势。

We can expect the pandemic’s spread and resulting push to decentralization and reduction of physical interactions will provide significant growth for MOOC offerings.

我们可以预期，大流行的蔓延以及由此导致的去中心化和减少物理互动的推动将为MOOC产品提供巨大的增长。

Another trend in education is the shift away from standardized systems of education to digital validation through social proof of work. Like a digital style apprenticeship, Social Proof of Work is a method for establishing trust and authenticating abilities in digital settings.

教育的另一个趋势是通过社会工作证明，从标准化的教育系统转变为数字验证。 就像数字式学徒一样， 社会工作证明是一种在数字环境中建立信任和认证能力的方法。

As opposed to a traditional credential like a college diploma, social proof of work requires individuals to learn publicly and establish a digital paper trail of experience that is verifiable. Completing amateur style tasks and working up to professional level skillsets, digital citizens will use proof of work to upskill and develop new paths to income.

与大学文凭等传统证书不同，工作的社会证明要求个人公开学习并建立可验证的数字化纸本经验。 数字公民可以完成业余风格的任务并提高专业水平的技能，他们将使用工作证明来提高技能并开发新的收入途径。

The pandemic will also result in an adaptation of the types of education required by the digital age. What we teach students will change and adapt to the needs of increasingly decentralized and digital life.

大流行还将导致适应数字时代所需的教育类型。 我们教给学生的内容将改变并适应日益分散和数字化生活的需求。

As an example, curriculums will be adapted to teach network effects, compound growth, game theory, statistics, and black swan events.

举个例子， 课程将进行调整，以教授网络效应，复合增长，博弈论，统计学和黑天鹅事件。

数字医疗 (Digital Healthcare)

In our current world, exposure to medical facilities is a risk when they are inundated with infected people. You can expect telemedicine to become commonplace. Technology will increasingly emerge to support remote consultation with physicians including diagnostic and treatment tools.

在当今世界，当医疗机构被感染的人淹没时，接触医疗机构是一种风险。 您可以期望远程医疗变得司空见惯。 越来越多的技术将支持与医生的远程会诊，包括诊断和治疗工具。

The proliferation of in-home medical devices powered by the IoT revolution will support doctors with remote diagnostic tools to assess patients. Current examples include in-home heart rate monitoring, blood pressure monitoring, and sleep trackers. As digital society embraces telemedicine, there will be a growing need for at-home blood testing solutions to provide deeper diagnostics.

物联网革命推动的家用医疗设备的激增将为医生提供远程诊断工具来评估患者。 当前的示例包括家庭心率监测，血压监测和睡眠跟踪器。 随着数字社会接受远程医疗，对家用血液测试解决方案以提供更深入的诊断的需求将日益增长。

During an outbreak, the demand for medical attention far surpasses the available physicians able to perform diagnostic medicine. AI Chatbots will be implemented to support the increased demand for medical practitioners. Chatbots help address the inevitable increase in hypochondria during an outbreak by providing a reassuring voice. Simultaneously, chatbots will provide a trainable algorithm to make diagnostic assessments capable of both diagnosing, providing medical recommendations and escalating cases to human physicians in the event of serious situations.

在爆发期间，对医疗服务的需求远远超过了能够进行诊断医学的医生。 人工智能聊天机器人将被实施，以支持对医疗从业人员的日益增长的需求。 聊天机器人通过提供令人安心的声音来帮助解决爆发期间不可避免的软骨病增加。 同时，聊天机器人将提供一种可训练的算法，以进行诊断评估，从而能够在严重情况下为人类医师提供诊断，提供医疗建议和升级病例的功能。

As we move into a post-pandemic digital society, our emphasis will be placed on developing tools to support diagnostic speed and decentralized care to prevent viral contagion.

当我们进入大流行后的数字社会时， 我们的重点将放在开发工具上，以支持诊断速度和分散护理，以防止病毒感染。

数字信息流 (Digital Information Flow)

Media institutions and governments no longer have a monopoly on information flow. Social media and alternative digital communication channels have given rise to a reputation based media system.

媒体机构和政府不再垄断信息流。 社交媒体和替代性数字通信渠道已经引起了基于声誉的媒体系统的发展。

As we move forward, expect new and alternative sources of information to become actionable intelligence. Truth doesn’t just come from the government or your local newspaper but now can come from “in the field” play by play communications.

随着我们的前进，期望新的替代信息来源将成为可操作的情报。 真相不仅来自政府或您当地的报纸，而且现在可以来自“现场”游戏交流。

These types of information sharing are authenticated by social proof of work, i.e., when the person sharing stakes their reputation and credibility. In the event that they prove to be false statements, reputation and influence is lost. Influence is the new form of capital in the digital age.

这些类型的信息共享通过工作证明的社会性进行验证，即，当共享者承担其声誉和信誉时。 如果事实证明它们是虚假陈述，则将失去声誉和影响力。 影响力是数字时代资本的新形式。

In this system, an individual or institution’s reputation is a form of digital currency.

在此系统中，个人或机构的声誉是一种数字货币。

As an example, Ben Hunt is a writer covering financial sector topics at his website Epsilon Theory. Hunt staked his reputation on the inevitability of a pandemic by gathering and sharing information with his followers on the Covid-19 outbreak.

举例来说，本·亨特(Ben Hunt)是其网站Epsilon Theory上涵盖金融行业主题的作家。 亨特通过收集和与Covid-19爆发的追随者分享信息，将自己的声誉归功于大流行的必然性。

Acting as an early source of information flow, Hunt acted as a filter providing legitimate news and analysis of the growing crisis. Hunt’s information frequently ran contrary to the government and mass media publication narratives until the pandemic was well underway.

作为信息流的早期来源，亨特充当了提供合法新闻和对日益严重的危机进行分析的筛选器。 亨特的信息经常与政府和大众媒体的叙述背道而驰，直到大流行开始。

Hunt became the filter distributing truth on the coronavirus along the long tail of information that is the internet.

亨特成为沿着信息网的长尾巴传播冠状病毒的过滤器真相。

In sharing consistent and factual information he became a go-to source of news and growing his reputation. In times past, that would have been the mainstream media or the government's role.

通过共享一致的事实信息，他成为新闻的首选来源，并提高了他的声誉。 在过去的时代中，那将是主流媒体或政府的角色。

Now and moving forward the information flow dynamic that was traditionally monopolized by the media and government has shifted towards the influencer model.

现在，并向前推进，传统上由媒体和政府垄断的信息流动态已转向影响者模型。

5G和VR (5G & VR)

A pandemic and the resulting stay-at-home quarantines will put significant stress on telecommunications infrastructure. As we shift to physical decentralization our needs for network access will change. This will lead to an expedited rollout of a 5G network.

大流行和由此产生的在家隔离将给电信基础设施带来巨大压力。 随着我们转向物理分散化，我们对网络访问的需求将会改变。 这将导致5G网络的快速部署。

In a post virus world, we will experience a massive need for remote first technologies. An acceleration in 5G implementation will support a change in societal connectivity demands. This will also support the expedited implementation of exciting VR solutions for remote collaborations and social activities. As a society, we can expect restrictions in social gatherings but humans are fundamentally social creatures. VR represents a solution to this innate need.

在后病毒时代，我们将遇到对远程优先技术的巨大需求。 5G实施的加速将支持社会连通性需求的变化。 这也将支持为远程协作和社交活动加快实施激动人心的VR解决方案 。 作为一个社会，我们可以期望社交聚会受到限制，但人类从根本上说是社交动物。 VR代表了这种先天需求的解决方案。

物联网，智慧城市和隐私 (IoT, Smart Cities, and Privacy)

On the backs of improved network capabilities and the drive for decentralization will be the widespread adoption of IoT. The Internet of Things (IoT) — or the digitization of everything — occurs when physical objects are manufactured with multi-purpose sensors pre-installed, allowing them to interact with other networked devices.

在网络功能得到改善以及分散化的推动下，物联网将得到广泛采用。 物联网(IoT)或万物的数字化发生在制造带有预装多功能传感器的物理对象时，它们可以与其他联网设备进行交互。

The growth of IoT allows for integrated networks of devices that give increasing levels of control to system administrators.

物联网的增长允许设备的集成网络为系统管理员提供越来越高的控制级别。

In the aftermath of a pandemic, society will more than likely choose to sacrifice privacy and control to address collective action problems associated with viral spreads. Following the SARS outbreak, China has led the way with Smart City technology to control viral outbreaks. This includes temperature checks at major travel points using thermal scanning cameras to monitor and prevent viral contagion. We can expect to see the adoption of this technology at scale following a major outbreak.

在大流行之后，社会更有可能选择牺牲隐私和控制权来解决与病毒传播相关的集体行动问题。 SARS爆发后，中国率先采用智慧城市技术来控制病毒爆发。 这包括使用热扫描摄像机在主要行驶点进行温度检查，以监控和防止病毒传染。 可以预见，在重大疫情爆发后，将大规模采用该技术。

IoT implementations can further support Smart Cities by tracking and enforcing quarantine zones, supporting hands-free access transit systems and tracking individuals that may have been exposed to an outbreak.

物联网实施可通过跟踪和强制执行隔离区，支持免提访问传输系统以及跟踪可能已爆发疫情的个人，进一步支持智能城市。

The level of pain and fear inflicted by the Covid-19 outbreak is still unclear but depending on the severity of the outbreak, society may be willing to sacrifice more privacy for preventative technologies.

虽然尚不清楚Covid-19爆发所造成的痛苦和恐惧程度，但是根据爆发的严重程度，社会可能愿意为预防技术牺牲更多的隐私。

转向地方主义 (Shift to localism)

As nations react to their own respective outbreaks, it’s evident that there are different levels of response. As a direct result of the differences in outcomes from these responses, it’s clear that a shift to localism will manifest in the wake of the outbreak. Different communities will choose to adopt different smart city solutions according to the needs and desires of their local communities.

当国家对自己的疫情做出React时，显然有不同的应对措施。 由于这些应对措施结果差异的直接结果，很明显，疫情爆发后将向本地主义转移。 不同的社区将根据当地社区的需求选择不同的智慧城市解决方案。

Localism is an ideological framework that emphasizes taking local responsibility for the needs of the community. This includes emphasizing the importance of local government and local production of goods, services, and supply chains. Localism promotes a macro level decentralization, placing responsibility for communities in their own hands while still being able to fit well within nationalized government systems. Maintaining community autonomy allows for the best decisions to be made at the community level.

地方主义是一个意识形态框架，强调对社区需求承担地方责任。 这包括强调地方政府和地方生产商品，服务和供应链的重要性。 地方主义促进了宏观上的权力下放，将对社区的责任掌握在自己手中，同时仍然能够很好地适应国有化的政府体系。 保持社区自治可以在社区级别做出最佳决策。

We can expect nations and large cities to adopt medical reserves. Similar to a strategic petroleum reserve, governments around the world will begin stockpiling pandemic resources as insurance against future outbreaks. Masks, ventilators, medications, and other supplies for frontline workers and volunteers.

我们可以期望国家和大城市采用医疗储备。 与战略石油储备类似，世界各国政府将开始储备大流行资源，以防将来爆发疫情。 为一线工人和志愿者提供口罩，呼吸机，药品和其他用品。

This will also include more individuals developing in-home pandemic preparations. Bug out bags, quarantine rations, and family planning based on emergency situations.

这也将包括更多开发家庭大流行制剂的个人。 根据紧急情况整理袋子，隔离口粮和计划生育。

数字未来 (Digital Future)

We can expect many societal-level changes from the Covid-19 pandemic. A large majority of the changes were already in the works and will experience an accelerated timeline of adoption. Other unexpected changes will also take place. What is clear, however, is that society is moving further towards the digitization of life. Individuals and governments that embrace these changes will be best prepared for the inevitable future.

我们可以预期Covid-19大流行会带来许多社会层面的变化。 大部分更改已经在进行中，并且会加快采用的时间表。 其他意外更改也将发生。 然而，显而易见的是，社会正在朝着生活的数字化迈进。 接受这些变化的个人和政府将为不可避免的未来做好最好的准备。

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