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2024年6月7日发(作者:)
China's exchange rate policy to the evaluation
Abstract:
this article from the four aspects of RMB exchange rate policy, that in
the past five years, China's trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting
worse and worse, no sign of improvement; The existing international organization for
its members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but have no
enforcement; The current Chinese exchange rate policy, no matter to China, the
United States, or any other country is bad; For China's exchange rate policy, at present
there are generally an error, which greatly, rapid appreciation of the RMB not feasible,
not suitable for; China should immediately be RMB exchange rate from the current
level to rise by 10-15 percent.
I. introduction and preview
Thank you Mr. Chairman gave me the opportunity to speak to me Chinese
exchange rate policy's views. First of all, in the past five years, China's exchange rate
policy reform in the slow progress; Secondly, I'd like to say why China's exchange
rate reform statement to the Chinese economy will slow progress, the American
economy, international monetary system, and the global trading system have an
important impact on; Again, I mainly expounds the relevant Chinese exchange rate
reform is slow excuse and can't convincing alibi and reasons; Fourth, about China's
exchange-rate policy of several erroneous zone. At last, I in China in the next one to
two years, in promoting exchange rate reform can and should take some action, I will
take this a few problems initiates.
First, in the past five years, China's trade imbalances and exchange rate
system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement.
In 2006, China's current-account surplus soared (soar) to 9% of GDP, at present
the RMB against China's trade partners of the mean value at least 30% undervalued
currency; Against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. From June 2005 to now, up
6.5% against the dollar, but relatively revaluation of the RMB against the dollar was
not enough to suspend (halt) China's competitive power in the international market of
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cumulative rises, also did not reduce China's trade surplus.
Second, the existing international organization for its members though
exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but are not enforced.
First look at the Chinese government, although China in the past four years have
been engaged in a lot of, single direction of the foreign exchange market intervention,
the Chinese authorities are still denied currency manipulation. Second look at the
Treasury, although a lot of evidence showing China handle the truth in the foreign
exchange market, but the Treasury still refused to China defined as "currency
manipulator". Finally see the international monetary fund, although the IMF is one of
the original intention was established to promote the development of all countries
exchange rate policy, but now it looks, the IMF's senior officials have also would not
for a dedicated to the IMF construction supervision and restraint world international
coordinating mechanism of exchange rate policy.
The third, and the slowness of the progress of China's exchange rate policy
reform, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is
unfavorable.
In China's case, the RMB is undervalued currency manipulation and serious fact
behavior of China to the foreign trade from the balance and consumption Spill-over
economic growth target, also on the China's monetary policy independence, also
interfere with the reform of the Chinese banking system, and improve the
international society to China in international currency and trade system inside
become a "responsible stakeholder" in doubt. For America, the RMB is the modest
rise not promote Asia the positive development of exchange rate system and the role
of the U.S. trade deficit and no so and be able to improve and will not reduce the
dollar crisis happened U.S. economy and the risk of a hard landing. If this situation
continues, emerging market countries may follow China in succession, that will give
the global currency system brings the serious influence, and even can be caused by
the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries of the backlash.
Fourth , the Chinese exchange rate policy , the current prevalence of a
misunderstanding, that the RMB is substantially rapid appreciation is not
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