Technology Strategy Pattern 学习笔记2

学习笔记2"/>

Technology Strategy Pattern 学习笔记2

Creating the Strategy-World Context

1 PESTEL

1.1 从6个方案看外部

• Political
• Economic
• Social
• Technological
• Environmental
• Legal

1.2 参考URL

• .html

1.3 Creating the PESTEL

• PESTEL是high level的
• First you do the research, and then you write it into a short analysis paper.
• Next, you put those points into slides for your Strategy Deck
• PESTEL should go in the appendix to support the technology recommendations and claims you make in the body of the deck
  1.4 Researching for PESTEL
• 首先是寻找外部资料
• PESTEL 每年更新一次+在重大事件后更新
  1.5 Applying the PESTEL
• Gathering the data through research while doing your best to
  not mix your biases and assumptions with it.
• Stating your insights
• Making local recommendations based on your insights. These
  will roll up together to form your business strategy.
• 如果企业由商业战略(BUSINESS STRATEGY), 需要检查PESTEL和战略的匹配度和一致性

2 Scenario Planning

2.1 参考URL
/%E6%83%85%E6%99%AF%E8%A7%84%E5%88%92/9535938
2.2 Steps for Scenario Planning

• Review all the trends out in the world that could affect your company’s business. You can get this from your PESTEL.

• Consider how different trends might disrupt, reroute, or otherwise hurt your business.

• Create a list of the trends with your estimation of the impact

• Build the scenarios together as a list

  • Don’t allow yourselves to succumb（屈服） to group think, or to avoid alternatives that are plausible（貌似有理）.
  • 不能委托给低级人员

• Assess the impact of each scenario. Develop alternate paths for each as in a Logic Tree

2.3 穷人版 情景规划

• bringing in experts from various parts of the business and technology to create and present their own short deck on their vision of the future.
• Look for the weak but plausible（在这本书里含义是合理） signals you hear from them. Then use inductive reasoning to forecast each of the weak signal’s impacts.

2.4 You’re not picking your favorite, or one that you want to see happen. You’re forecasting the future

3 Futures Funnel

3.1 示意图

注意不同圈定范围，preferred和probably、plausible是有重叠，但不一致

3.2 possible futures

• any future can eventuate only if it’s possible
• 全集

3.3 plausible

• 合理的子集合

3.4 preferred future

• 期望的未来

3.5 probable outcomes

• 比possible 更可能发生的未来

3.6 可以使用回溯-backcasting 来深度评估/思考preferred及probable

• 要忽略任何不合理的期望

3.7 可以使用SWOT和five forces pattern 来建立futures funnel

4 Backcasting

4.1 steps

• With your architecture, strategy, and product teams together,
  create a simple vision of the Beautiful Future.
• Hypothesize the immediately prior necessary state-antecedent（来路）
• you repeat the process to hypothesize the antecedent to that antecedent and so on, until you work your way back to the current state.
• Next, consider the consequent. A basic statement in propositional logic has three parts: the hypothesis, the consequent, and the logical connector between the two
• 假设到来路之间要怎么连接、实现

5 参考URL

有各种思维模板：